{"id":1815,"date":"2016-12-15T03:38:19","date_gmt":"2016-12-15T02:38:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/france-ohada-droit.com\/?p=1815"},"modified":"2019-06-15T06:18:24","modified_gmt":"2019-06-15T04:18:24","slug":"history-data-and-economics-for-africa-can-we-get-them-less-wrong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/france-ohada-droit.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/15\/history-data-and-economics-for-africa-can-we-get-them-less-wrong\/","title":{"rendered":"History, Data and Economics for Africa\u00a0:Can We Get Them Less Wrong"},"content":{"rendered":"

History, Data and Economics for Africa: Can We Get Them Less Wrong?: Reply to Morten Jervens \u00ab\u00a0Trapped between tragedy and miracles: misunderstanding African Growth\u00a0\u00bb<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

Denis Cogneau\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Development Review Policy 2016 (sept. on line, nov. paper), 34(6), pp , pp 895-899<\/span><\/p>\n

Note de lecture Faustin Ekollo, d\u00e9c.\u00a0 2016<\/span><\/p>\n

Mise \u00e0 jour\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/span>: Uchena Uzo & Abel Kinoti Meru [ed.], Indigenous Management Practices in Africa – A Guide for Educators and Practitioners, Emerald Pub. 2018.<\/span><\/p>\n

Il est vrai que lorsque l\u2019on compare les statistiques d\u2019\u00e9lectrification en Afrique et la mesure de l\u2019\u00e9clairage d\u00e9sormais fourni par satellite,\u00a0 imm\u00e9diatement,\u00a0 le manque de fiabilit\u00e9 des donn\u00e9es officielles\u00a0saute aux yeux. Mais il ne faut pas non plus se pr\u00e9cipiter et en d\u00e9duire une corr\u00e9lation avec le niveau de vie car il faut alors tenir compte de la densit\u00e9 de la population\u00a0! Si l\u2019on ajoute la faible corr\u00e9lation entre certaines situations historiques et les cons\u00e9quences qui en sont tir\u00e9es, il ne fait aucun doute que la pertinence de l\u2019exploitation de donn\u00e9es en mati\u00e8re d\u2019\u00e9conom\u00e9trie n\u2019est pas parfaite.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mais l\u2019auteur temp\u00e8re les critiques \u00e9mises par Mortens Jervens<\/em><\/strong>. Entre autres, il prend les trajectoires de deux pays voisins amplement comparables, la Cote d\u2019Ivoire<\/em><\/strong> et le Ghana<\/em><\/strong> pour relativiser la pertinence des explications souvent avanc\u00e9es dans les analyses des situations contemporaines.\u00a0 Au plan historique, il existe plusieurs\u00a0 diff\u00e9rences concernant les points dits fondamentaux.\u00a0 Mais quelle importance accorder aux facteurs sp\u00e9cifiques de croissance\u00a0? Selon l\u2019accent mis sur tel facteur, on pr\u00e9dira un meilleur avenir pour tel pays. Avec l\u2019empire Ashanti aux 18e<\/sup> et 19e<\/sup> si\u00e8cles, une large portion du Ghana actuel a subi une tr\u00e8s forte centralisation politique, au contraire de l\u2019\u00e9parpillement\u00a0 tribal qui a s\u00e9vi en C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire. De ce fait, la traite des esclaves fut plus intense au Ghana. Durant la p\u00e9riode coloniale, et jusqu\u2019\u00e0 la deuxi\u00e8me Guerre mondiale, la Gold Coast<\/em><\/strong> \u00e9tait la plus riche colonie britannique en Afrique tropicale alors que la C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire \u00e9tait dans la moyenne des colonies fran\u00e7aises, en de\u00e7\u00e0 du S\u00e9n\u00e9gal. D\u00e8s 1920, le Ghana devint le leader mondial de la culture du cacao, laquelle ne d\u00e9colla en C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire que dans les ann\u00e9es 1950. Par la suite, lors des ind\u00e9pendances, les deux leaders, Houphou\u00ebt Boigny<\/em><\/strong> et Kwame Nkrumah<\/em><\/strong> diverg\u00e8rent sur de nombreux points\u00a0; on a observ\u00e9 plusieurs chass\u00e9s crois\u00e9s entre les deux pays\u00a0; apr\u00e8s les choix de socialisme panafricain de Kwame Nkrumah le Ghana tomba dans une instabilit\u00e9 politique et \u00e9conomique alors que la C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire connaissait son \u00e2ge d\u2019or (le miracle ivoirien), jusqu\u2019\u00e0 la chute des prix mondiaux du cacoa dans les ann\u00e9es 1980\u00a0; le Ghana qui s\u2019\u00e9tait ensuite r\u00e9ajust\u00e9 structurellement sous Jerry Rawlings<\/em><\/strong> devint l\u2019enfant ch\u00e9ri des bailleurs de fonds internationaux tandis que la C\u00f4te d\u2019ivoire s\u2019enfon\u00e7ait dans une instabilit\u00e9 politique r\u00e9dhibitoire ; mais depuis 2012, la C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire tend \u00e0 rattraper le Ghana \u00a0sans que le pass\u00e9 historique puisse vraiment servir d\u2019explication cr\u00e9dible\u00a0; peut-\u00eatre faut-il simplement admettre comme \u00e9l\u00e9ment d\u00e9terminant le fait que les deux pays soient producteur de cacao, au-del\u00e0 de leurs vicissitudes historiques\u00a0?<\/span><\/p>\n

L\u2019auteur insiste sur la n\u00e9cessaire humilit\u00e9 d\u2019une m\u00e9thodologie qui ne soit pas de parti-pris (gouvernez comme nous ou comme au Danemark<\/em>)\u00a0; il indique sa pr\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour des comparaisons structurellement proches qui permettent un approfondissement plus utile\u00a0: C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire-Ghana, mais aussi des pays ayant le m\u00eame pass\u00e9 colonial (C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire, S\u00e9n\u00e9gal, Guin\u00e9e\u00a0; ou Ghana et Kenya), voir des pays antipodiques dans le m\u00eame continent\u00a0; Alg\u00e9rie\/ \u00a0Afrique du sud. Cette lecture nous rappelle, par l\u2019\u00e9tat d\u2019esprit,\u00a0 Pascale Ph\u00e9linas<\/em><\/strong>,\u00a0Comment mesurer l\u2019emploi dans les pays en voie de d\u00e9veloppement\u00a0?<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0Revue Tiers Monde, n\u00b0 218, \u00a0avril-juin 2014, p. 15\u00a0;<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

History, Data and Economics for Africa: Can We Get Them Less Wrong?: Reply to Morten Jervens \u00ab\u00a0Trapped between tragedy and miracles: misunderstanding African Growth\u00a0\u00bb Denis Cogneau\u00a0 Development Review Policy 2016 (sept. on line, nov. paper), 34(6), pp , pp 895-899 Note de lecture Faustin Ekollo, d\u00e9c.\u00a0 2016 Mise \u00e0 jour\u00a0: Uchena Uzo & Abel Kinoti Meru [ed.], Indigenous Management Practices in Africa – A Guide for Educators and Practitioners, Emerald Pub. 2018. [\u2026]<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[15],"tags":[81,114,144,113,115,85,145,93,143,112,116],"yoast_head":"\nHistory, Data and Economics for Africa: Can We Get Them Less Wrong<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pour une analyse des donn\u00e9es historico-\u00e9conomiques africaines plus pertinents et probablement plus utile pour le d\u00e9cideurs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/france-ohada-droit.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/15\/history-data-and-economics-for-africa-can-we-get-them-less-wrong\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"History, Data and Economics for Africa: Can We Get Them 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