{"id":1756,"date":"2014-03-13T15:06:59","date_gmt":"2014-03-13T14:06:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/france-ohada-droit.com\/?p=1756"},"modified":"2019-06-13T15:24:52","modified_gmt":"2019-06-13T13:24:52","slug":"allan-greenspan-never-saw-it-coming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/france-ohada-droit.com\/index.php\/2014\/03\/13\/allan-greenspan-never-saw-it-coming\/","title":{"rendered":"Allan Greenspan, Never Saw It Coming"},"content":{"rendered":"

 <\/p>\n

Allan Greenspan<\/span><\/h2>\n

Never Saw It Coming \u2500 Why the Financial Crises Took Economists by Surprise<\/span><\/h2>\n

Foreign Affairs,\u00a0 Nov.-Dec. 2013<\/span><\/h4>\n

 <\/p>\n

Note de lecture, mars 2014<\/span><\/p>\n

Faustin Ekollo, docteur en droit<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0Dans cet essai,\u00a0 l\u2019ancien pr\u00e9sident de la FED propose des pistes pour comprendre\u00a0 l\u2019aveuglement collectif qui a accompagn\u00e9 la crise qui a commenc\u00e9 en 2008.<\/span><\/p>\n

L\u2019essai est relativement facile \u00e0 lire\u00a0; d\u2019ailleurs, il commence comme un roman. L\u2019auteur raconte qu\u2019apr\u00e8s avoir jou\u00e9 au tennis en indoor\u00a0 le dimanche 16 mars 2008, il re\u00e7ut un coup de fil de la nature la plus redoutable possible\u00a0: un haut membre du conseil d\u2019administration de la Fed appelait pour envisager, pour la premi\u00e8re fois depuis des d\u00e9cennies,\u00a0 la mise en \u0153uvre de l\u2019article 13 (3) de la loi instituant\u00a0 R\u00e9serve F\u00e9d\u00e9rale. Ce texte permet virtuellement de pr\u00eater n\u2019importe quel somme \u00e0 n\u2019importe quel agent \u00e9conomique, en cas de besoin\u00a0! En l\u2019occurrence il fallait pr\u00eater dans l\u2019urgence 29 MMM $ \u00e0 J.-P. Morgan pour la reprise de la banque d\u2019investissement\u00a0 Bear Stearns\u00a0 qui venait de perdre 20 MMM $ en une semaine et \u00e9tait au bord de la faillite\u00a0!\u00a0 Ce fut le d\u00e9but d\u2019une \u00e9rosion financi\u00e8re qui atteignit son point culminant, six mois plus tard,\u00a0 avec la faillite de Lehman Bros, d\u00e9clenchant\u00a0 une grande crise financi\u00e8re peut-\u00eatre pire que la grande d\u00e9pression des ann\u00e9es 30.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

La lecture peut d\u00e9cevoir dans la mesure o\u00f9 l\u2019auteur\u00a0 n\u2019offre pas de mea culpa<\/em>. Or, c\u2019est cet aspect des choses que nombre d\u2019analystes attendaient le plus. Les critiques rappellent qu\u2019en juin 2005 l\u2019alors pr\u00e9sident de la FED avait d\u00e9clar\u00e9 au Congr\u00e8s qu\u2019il n\u2019y avait pas de crainte \u00e0 avoir d\u2019une bulle immobili\u00e8re car, au niveau de la Nation,\u00a0 la tr\u00e8s large titrisation des pr\u00eats immobiliers rendait peu vraisemblable un d\u00e9rapage des milieux financiers\u00a0:<\/span><\/p>\n

Nationwide banking and widespread securitization of mortgages make it less likely that financial intermediation would be impaired<\/em>.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

L\u2019essai est une sorte de condens\u00e9 de son livre sorti en octobre 2013, The Map and the Territory<\/em><\/strong> (Risk Human Nature and the Future of Forecasting, Penguin 2013<\/em><\/strong>). Ce livre\u00a0 a subi un tir de barrage \u00e0 cause de l\u2019absence de mea culpa et de sa tendance \u00e0 l\u2019autojustification. Dans l\u2019essai, comme dans le livre,\u00a0 Greenspan montre la difficult\u00e9 de jouer les oracles\u00a0; il r\u00e9it\u00e8re la validit\u00e9 des principes prudentiels tout en se montrant tr\u00e8s sceptique \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de la tentation d\u2019une r\u00e9gulation intrusive fond\u00e9e sur l\u2019illusion qu\u2019il existerait des boucliers irr\u00e9futables contre les risques \u00e9conomiques et financiers.<\/span><\/p>\n

Il est n\u00e9anmoins difficile d\u2019\u00eatre d\u2019accord avec la conclusion du\u00a0 tr\u00e8s bel article que Gregory Mankiw a consacr\u00e9 \u00e0 son livre, dans\u00a0 le New York Times (Nov. 14, 2013)\u00a0 sous le titre\u00a0 Things Didn\u2019t Go as Planned<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0: \u00ab\u00a0on comprend pourquoi cinq pr\u00e9sidents am\u00e9ricains se sont tourn\u00e9s vers lui, reconnaissant en lui\u00a0 l\u2019un des plus grands \u00e9conomistes de notre temps.\u00a0\u00bb<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

En effet, William A Fleckenstein, le critique le plus radical de l\u2019ancien patron de la FED (Greenspan Bubble- The Age of Ignorance at the Federal reserve<\/em><\/strong>) rappelle que ce dernier est rest\u00e9 \u00e0 la t\u00eate de la FED durant pr\u00e8s de 19 ans, n\u2019acceptant jamais la moindre responsabilit\u00e9 pour\u00a0: le crash boursier de 1987\u00a0; la faillite des caisses d\u2019\u00e9pargne (Saving and Loans<\/em><\/strong>)\u00a0; la quasi faillite de Long Term Capital Managment<\/em><\/strong> en septembre 1998\u00a0; la bulle technologique de 2000\u00a0; et en 2007, la crise des subprime\u00a0;<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n

Membres permanents du site France Ohada Droit<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  • Amadou Diallo<\/em><\/strong>, Secr\u00e9taire g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de la Cour supr\u00eame de Mauritanie<\/li>\n
  • Ma\u00eetre Patricia SUID VANHEMELRYCK<\/em><\/strong>, Avocat \u00e0 Nice<\/li>\n
  • Ma\u00eetre Thioye Mamadou SOW<\/em><\/strong>,\u00a0 SG Ordre national des Notaires de Mauritanie<\/li>\n
  • Ma\u00eetre Thierry Serra<\/em><\/strong>, Avocat \u00e0 Paris, sp\u00e9cialiste des proc\u00e9dures d\u2019appel<\/li>\n
  • Faustin EKOLLO<\/em><\/strong>, docteur en droit, Secr\u00e9taire du site<\/li>\n
  • Association alaistithmar fi muritania, <\/em><\/strong>investir en Mauritanie, \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0627\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0648\u0631\u064a\u062a\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0627<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Publi\u00e9 in France Ohada droit<\/em><\/strong>,\u00a0 <\/u><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Allan Greenspan Never Saw It Coming \u2500 Why the Financial Crises Took Economists by Surprise Foreign Affairs,\u00a0 Nov.-Dec. 2013   Note de lecture, mars 2014 Faustin Ekollo, docteur en droit \u00a0Dans cet essai,\u00a0 l\u2019ancien pr\u00e9sident de la FED propose des pistes pour comprendre\u00a0 l\u2019aveuglement collectif qui a accompagn\u00e9 la crise qui a commenc\u00e9 en 2008. L\u2019essai est relativement facile \u00e0 lire\u00a0; d\u2019ailleurs, il commence comme un roman. L\u2019auteur raconte qu\u2019apr\u00e8s avoir [\u2026]<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[121,123,124,126,122,125],"yoast_head":"\nl'ancien pr\u00e9sident de la FED Allan Greespan expliquant la crise de 2008<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"l'ancien pr\u00e9sident de la FED Allan Greespan expliquant la crise de 2008 : never saw it coming, article r\u00e9sum\u00e9 de son livre\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/france-ohada-droit.com\/index.php\/2014\/03\/13\/allan-greenspan-never-saw-it-coming\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"l'ancien pr\u00e9sident de la FED Allan 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